A Leader for Liberia’s Future: Ngafuan’s Detailed Strategy for Economic Recovery

By Julius T. Jaesen, II
juliusjaesen@gmail.com

The speech delivered by Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan at the Liberian Senate Confirmation Hearing is a deeply considered and strategically sound roadmap aimed at addressing the myriads of challenges confronting the Liberian economy. His reform proposals reflect an understanding of the complex nature of Liberia’s economic difficulties, and his past experiences as Finance Minister from 2008 to 2012, as well as his role as the African Development Bank’s Representative to Uganda, position him as the most qualified candidate to steer the country’s fiscal and developmental policies at this crucial juncture.

Ngafuan’s speech is a comprehensive plan that tackles the urgent need for effective resource allocation, increased revenue generation, budgetary credibility, and disciplined debt management. His focus on “prioritising our priorities” by ensuring that resources are directed towards national goals as outlined in the ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID) is crucial for aligning Liberia’s budget with its long-term development strategy. This approach demonstrates an awareness of the need for coherence between planning and execution, a key element often missing in Liberia’s previous economic strategies.

The emphasis on enhancing revenue generation through the development of key sectors such as energy, agriculture, and mining is particularly relevant in the context of Liberia’s current economic challenges. The energy sector, for instance, has been a significant bottleneck to economic growth due to frequent power outages and insufficient infrastructure. By prioritising the improvement of power generation and distribution, Ngafuan acknowledges that sustainable economic growth is contingent upon reliable energy, which would, in turn, stimulate private sector investment and job creation. The focus on the agricultural sector, especially through the support of the “Liberians Feed Yourselves Agenda,” is also a strategic move to bolster food security and generate indigenous wealth, addressing both economic and social challenges simultaneously.

Ngafuan’s proposal to improve the efficiency and credibility of the budget process by ensuring realistic revenue forecasting and reducing bureaucratic red tape is a critical reform strategy. The frequent recasting of the budget due to unrealistic revenue projections has historically undermined fiscal discipline in Liberia. By pledging to develop more accurate forecasts and streamline the budget execution process, Ngafuan is laying the groundwork for a more predictable and stable economic environment. His goal to ensure that all government workers are paid before the end of each month is not only a commitment to fiscal responsibility but also a morale booster for the public sector, which is essential for maintaining effective governance.

Debt management is another area where Ngafuan’s expertise is evident. His experience in leading Liberia to reach the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative Completion Point in 2010, which resulted in the cancellation of nearly $5 billion in external debt, evidenced his ability to steer multifaceted financial landscapes. His proposal to maintain prudent and disciplined debt management practices, particularly in light of Liberia’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio, is critical to preventing the country from sliding into high debt distress. This disciplined approach is necessary to preserve fiscal space for essential government expenditures and avoid the adverse economic consequences of unsustainable debt accumulation.

Ngafuan’s experience as the African Development Bank’s Country Representative in Uganda further strengthens his credentials. During his tenure, he was instrumental in fostering partnerships and mobilising resources that contributed to Uganda’s economic development. This experience in international development and resource mobilisation is directly applicable to his proposed strategy of leveraging bilateral and multilateral partnerships to support Liberia’s development agenda. His ability to secure international support will be crucial for implementing the ambitious AAID and other development initiatives.

What makes Ngafuan’s speech particularly loaded is not just the breadth of reforms he proposes but the depth of his understanding of the underlying issues. He acknowledges that while quick actions can be taken to stabilise the economy, the more profound challenges are complex and will require sustained, multi-stakeholder efforts. This realistic assessment sets the stage for a leadership style that is both pragmatic and visionary, capable of making tough decisions while keeping the long-term development goals in sight.

Ngafuan’s approach to financial management laws and regulations, particularly his commitment to improving compliance with the Public Financial Management (PFM) Law and the Public Procurement and Concessions Commission (PPCC) Act, is essential for enhancing transparency and accountability in government spending. This focus on compliance is not just about adhering to the law but about ensuring that public resources are used effectively and efficiently, which is fundamental to building public trust and fostering economic stability.

Moreover, Ngafuan’s proposal to review the Pay Harmonisation Program is a timely and necessary intervention. The program, while well-intentioned, has faced criticism for its implementation, which has led to dissatisfaction among public servants. By committing to a thorough review of the policy, Ngafuan is signaling his willingness to engage with stakeholders and make adjustments where necessary to ensure that the public sector workforce is adequately incentivised and motivated.

While Ngafuan’s speech is comprehensive, there are other reforms not mentioned that could further bolster Liberia’s economic recovery. For instance, strengthening the financial sector, particularly by enhancing the capacity of local banks to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), could stimulate economic growth and job creation. Additionally, implementing robust anti-corruption measures, such as empowering financially the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission and making the institution independent without executive interference, would address one of the root causes of inefficiency and waste in government spending.